Why Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland Backfired: Shocking Revelations

Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland on December 26, 2025, was not driven by the long-standing aspirations of the people of Somaliland, a breakaway region in northwest Somalia. Instead, this move reflects shifting geopolitical dynamics and the fragmentation of the global order. Once a peripheral concern, Somaliland’s recognition now sits at the heart of regional and international power struggles, highlighting the growing trend of using separatist movements as strategic tools by various nations to project influence, destabilize rival governments, and secure vital maritime corridors. This recognition underscores how geopolitical interests increasingly shape the stances on secessionist entities, with broader implications for stability and sovereignty in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East.

The significance of the Horn of Africa and regional power rivalry

The Red Sea and the strategic corridor

The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region have become critical theaters of intense geopolitical rivalry, mainly because of their strategic importance in global trade and regional security. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is one of the world’s most crucial maritime chokepoints, handling approximately 10% of global shipping traffic. This narrow corridor affords its control significant leverage over maritime commerce, making the surrounding nations highly sought after for influence and security interests.

Somaliland’s extensive coastline has made it an attractive strategic asset. Recognizing Somaliland, Israel aspires to deepen its footprint in this geopolitically sensitive region. This move dovetails with broader attempts by Israel and its allies to establish strategic footholds along vital maritime pathways, enabling them to monitor rival states, project power, and strengthen intelligence operations. The recognition also offers Israel an opportunity to expand its influence within the Horn of Africa’s strategic triangle, partially motivated by the desire to secure access to maritime routes vital for international trade and energy transit.

The competition over control of these routes was notably highlighted in January 2024, when Ethiopia signed a controversial agreement with Somaliland, promising political recognition in exchange for access to the sea. The deal showcased Ethiopia’s strategic interest in gaining direct maritime access, given its landlocked status. However, such arrangements proved fragile. By December 2024, under Turkish-backed talks mediated by Ankara, Somalia and Ethiopia reached a new understanding that reaffirmed Somalia’s sovereignty and clarified that sea access negotiations would be handled by Somalia itself, rather than bilateral agreements with Somaliland. This episode underscores the churning, unstable nature of such arrangements and the fierce competition over Somaliland’s status.

China’s strategic ambitions and regional influence

China’s role in the Horn of Africa has grown markedly, with its interests spanning ports, mineral resources, and shipping routes. Somaliland’s attempt to develop closer ties with Taiwan drew Beijing’s sharp attention, given China’s strong “One China” policy and its opposition to any engagement with Taipei. At the same time, China has vocally supported Somalia’s territorial integrity, leveraging diplomatic and economic tools to counter separatist movements that threaten the stability of the region.

Beijing’s overarching concern lies in preventing the spread of separatism, which could threaten both Chinese investments and regional stability. The presence of multiple actors vying for influence, from the US to regional powers, has turned the Horn of Africa into a complex and volatile area where global rivalries intersect with local aspirations for independence. For China, the area also represents a critical component of the Belt and Road Initiative, making stability and adherence to existing borders central to its interests.

To dissuade regional actors from recognizing Somaliland, China has engaged in diplomatic efforts aimed at reaffirming Somalia’s sovereignty. This opposition reflects China’s broader strategy to maintain a stable, unified regional environment that favors its economic interests while opposing initiatives that could set precedents for separatism beyond its borders.

The evolving Middle East’s response to secession

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has accelerated a broader regional realignment across the Middle East, especially among Gulf and North African states. In recent years, alliances have shifted, with some countries growing wary of secessionist movements they deem destabilizing. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and others have begun adjusting their positions.

The regional shift was initially triggered by Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council, which signaled its intent to pursue independence, and was further reinforced by Israel’s move. Saudi Arabia, perceiving these developments as threats to its influence and security, has led an effort to form a coalition aimed at countering “the Axis of Secession.” This alliance seeks to prevent fragmentation in the region and to support the sovereignty of states like Somalia while opposition states see secession as a destabilizing force that could threaten their own security.

Each member of this emerging alliance has specific concerns: Egypt, for example, fears that recognizing Somaliland could embolden Ethiopia, which is embroiled in a dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Turkey’s extensive investments in Somalia’s security and economic sectors for over a decade make state fragmentation a strategic threat to its interests. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia views secessionist movements, especially in Yemen, as direct challenges to its national security, prompting it to spearhead efforts to contain these threats.

This regional coalition is actively working to persuade global powers like the United States to oppose recognition efforts like Israel’s, emphasizing the importance of regional stability and sovereignty.

Somalia’s urgent diplomatic recalibration

For Somalia, these regional developments demand a swift and strategic response. The country’s government recognizes that aligning with this emerging consensus is essential to preserve its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Somalia faces internal challenges too—its internal politics are often volatile, with upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections set for May 2026. The government needs to unify political factions around core issues, including controversial constitutional amendments and the framework for upcoming elections, to prevent internal divisions that could be exploited by external actors.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s leadership has been marked by cautious diplomacy, but time is running out. Without domestic consensus and a clear foreign policy stance, Somalia risks internal destabilization and external manipulation. Coordination with regional allies and rigorous efforts to maintain unity are seen as vital steps to ward off attempts by secessionist supporters to exploit internal divisions.

This moment represents a crossroads for Somalia, where external alignments and internal cohesion must be prioritized to face mounting threats and solidify its sovereignty.

Somaliland’s paradox: recognition losing its edge

Ironically, Somaliland’s quest for international recognition has been complicated by its diplomatic tilt toward Israel. The move to formalize relations with Israel has damaged Somaliland’s international standing, given the region’s strained relations with Tel Aviv. Despite its aspirations, Somaliland’s decision has alienated many in the Arab and Muslim worlds, where support for Palestine remains deeply rooted. Many regional powers see Somaliland’s alignment with Israel as a breach of solidarity and an obstacle to broader recognition.

Domestically, the move has sparked dissent among Somaliland’s population, many of whom oppose normalization with Israel, especially amid rumors—denied by Somaliland authorities—that Israel is exploring resettling Palestinian refugees from Gaza in the region. Such claims have fueled anti-Israel sentiment, complicating efforts to build support for independence and recognition.

Moreover, recent developments on the ground have weakened Somaliland’s claim to effective control over its claimed territory. In July 2025, Somaliland lost a significant portion of its holdings when the Northeast State of Somalia was established as a federal member state within Somalia. The new state quickly reaffirmed loyalty to Mogadishu, further undermining Somaliland’s bid for recognition and highlighting the increasing difficulty of asserting independence in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

International responses have largely reaffirmed Somalia’s sovereignty. Organizations including IGAD, the African Union, the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the European Union, and India issued statements supporting Somalia’s territorial sovereignty and unity. Even the United States, a close ally of Israel, reiterated its commitment to Somalia’s territorial integrity, suggesting that recognition moves like Israel’s work against the broader objective of regional stability.

The recognition of Somaliland by Israel, intended as a strategic move, has largely backfired. It has intensified diplomatic isolation for Somaliland, increasing internal opposition and weakening its territorial control. Conversely, for Somalia, the recognition has underscored the importance of sovereignty and possibly strengthened international support for its unity.

Many experts argue that the Israeli recognition of Somaliland exemplifies the limits of using independence declarations as tools for geopolitical influence. Countries pursuing such recognition often find themselves increasingly isolated and vulnerable to internal dissent. Moreover, the episode highlights the fluidity and complexity of internal and external politics in regions prone to fragmentation. The intricate web of alliances, rivalries, and local conflicts makes long-term stability elusive, especially amid Great Power competition.

As the global order continues to fragment, the lessons from Somaliland’s recognition move suggest that unilateral recognition may do more harm than good, exacerbating internal divisions and limiting diplomatic options for the aspiring state. For Somalia, urgent reconciliation and clear international backing remain crucial for defending its sovereignty against external meddling. The episode underscores how a strategy intended to bolster independence can paradoxically undermine it, especially in a world where recognition is increasingly seen as a geopolitical tool rather than a purely diplomatic act.

All opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Al Jazeera.